During the epidemic prevention and control period, the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa has shown strong resilience, and the economies of many countries in the region have recently shown signs of stabilization and recovery. The World Bank believes that the efficiency of the new crown vaccine, the ability to respond to climate risks, and the ability to prevent debt risks will be the three major factors that determine the degree of economic recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa in the future.
The World Bank's latest "Global Economic Outlook" report predicts that the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa will rebound by 2.7% in 2021. The report pointed out that while preventing and controlling the epidemic, many countries in the region have gradually shown the effects of various economic stimulus measures, and the regional economy is expected to achieve moderate growth.
Multi-country economic recovery is better than expected
The report believes that with the gradual recovery of demand in the world's major economies, the economies of Africa's commodity export-oriented countries will accelerate their recovery; the economies of some agricultural exporting countries are less affected, and the economic growth rate in 2021 will be better than expected.
The World Bank predicts that South Africa's economic growth rate will reach 3.3% in 2021, which is higher than the average level of sub-Saharan Africa. The South African Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the South African economy is gradually getting rid of four consecutive quarters of technical recession, showing a slow recovery trend. South African President Ramaphosa said: "Our task is not only to fight for economic recovery, but also to seize the opportunity to give South Africa a new look." At present, the South African government continues to promote the resumption of important industries such as energy, transportation, medical and digital infrastructure. Resumption of production will help accelerate economic recovery.
The economic recovery of Nigeria, another major economy in the region, is largely affected by oil prices and production. In order to improve the operating efficiency of the oil and gas industry and attract foreign investment, Nigeria has introduced a new version of the Petroleum Industry Act, which aims to enhance the international competitiveness of related enterprises. Standard & Poor's Global Platts forecasts that due to policy stimulus and other factors, Nigeria's crude oil production will gradually recover this year, and Nigeria's crude oil production will reach 1.7 million barrels per day in April, and is expected to rise to 1.9 million barrels per day in the second half of the year.
As an important production center of the global mining industry, many countries in Africa regard mining recovery as the starting point for economic recovery. In 2020, African countries will generally adopt prevention and control measures to ensure the smooth progress of mining. At present, the epidemic prevention and control situation in most mines in Africa is good.
Kenyan economist Anze Tesai told our reporter that the African Continental Free Trade Area will start operation on January 1, 2021. It will strengthen mutually beneficial trade within the African continent and help further integrate the development of industrial cooperation in the African region. Accelerate the process of industrialization in Africa. In addition, with the large-scale implementation of new crown vaccination this year, the regional epidemic is expected to gradually ease, creating favorable conditions for future economic recovery.
The economic stabilization policy shows initial results
During the epidemic prevention and control period, many regional governments have launched relief plans, including providing food security to the needy groups, increasing public investment to create jobs, and accelerating the use of digital technology to promote the development and transformation of enterprises, and achieved significant results.
South Africa persists in implementing a number of economic promotion plans, and is currently continuing to implement the "Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan" announced in October last year, increasing infrastructure construction, improving the business environment, attracting investment, and working hard to create jobs. South Africa plans to invest more than 1 trillion rand (1 U.S. dollar equals 15.2 rand) in infrastructure in the next four years, and construction of the first batch of infrastructure projects has started. The implementation of the "Presidential Employment Stimulus Plan" aims to create 800,000 jobs for this fiscal year. As of early December 2020, more than 400,000 jobs have been created.
Nigeria continues to promote economic structural reforms to slow down the economic recession and strengthen economic development resilience. Last year, Nigeria launched the "Zero Oil Program", hoping to substantially increase the export of non-petroleum products. According to the plan, Nigeria’s non-oil exports will exceed US$30 billion in the next 10 years, adding at least 500,000 jobs each year. Sakun, Executive Director of the Nigeria Export Promotion Council, said that the "Zero Oil Plan" will be integrated as a core component of Nigeria's economic recovery and growth plan.
The World Bank report pointed out that sub-Saharan African countries should continue to promote economic transformation and enhance their ability to resist risks. In the medium and long term, the region's economic growth rate will remain one of the world's leading regions.
Some experts believe that in the future, the focus of regional national economic reforms should be shifted from income subsidies to promoting growth, by improving digital economy infrastructure, improving the ability to respond to climate change, promoting public health development, further facilitating the business environment, and steadily achieving economic recovery.
Abebe Selassie, director of the African Department of the International Monetary Fund, said that sub-Saharan Africa needs continuous external financial assistance to support its macroeconomic stability and development. In response, members of the Group of Twenty and the International Monetary Fund have pledged to implement the "Debt Repayment Initiative for the Poorest Countries" to reduce the debt burden of relevant African countries. China recently announced that under the framework of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, relevant African countries will cancel interest-free loans to China by the end of 2020, and call on the G20 to further extend the debt relief period of relevant countries on the basis of implementing the current debt relief initiatives.
Deepening China-Africa cooperation and injecting momentum
In Guinea, Units 1 and 2 of the Suapiti Water Control Project were connected to the grid at the end of last year to further alleviate the bottleneck of electricity consumption in the region. In Kenya, the project of Berths 1 to 3 of Lamu Port is more than half of the project, which is an "East African country going to sea". The construction of the “Grand Passage” paved the way; in Zimbabwe, the new parliament building has completed the structural topping, and China’s largest aid project in southern Africa is about to emerge... During the epidemic prevention and control period, China’s more than 1,100 cooperation projects in Africa to jointly build the “Belt and Road” insisted In operation, a number of railway, highway, and power station projects have overcome difficulties and resumed production one after another. Nearly 100,000 Chinese technical and engineering personnel stick to their posts and make important contributions to local economic and social development.
Beatrix, a scholar from Kenya's Lira University, told our reporter that the accelerated recovery of China's economy has injected strong impetus into Africa's economic recovery. As Africa's important trading partner and major infrastructure financing provider and builder, China is vital to Africa's economic recovery and development in the post-epidemic era.
Under the framework of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, more and more Chinese companies and investors are turning their attention to Africa. Recently, Congo (DRC) and Botswana respectively signed a memorandum of understanding on the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” with China. The two countries have become the 45th and 46th partner countries of Africa participating in the “Belt and Road” cooperation. Under the epidemic prevention and control, China-Africa cooperation in jointly building cooperative projects, maintaining economic operations, and guaranteeing employment and people's livelihood continues to deepen.
South African Independent Media recently published a signed article by South African economist Helmo Plaus, stating that China has taken practical actions to support African countries in restoring their economies, reducing debt, and uniting against the epidemic. In the future, Africa and China will further strengthen strategic cooperation and continue to promote The joint construction of the “Belt and Road” has continuously injected new connotations into the Africa-China comprehensive strategic partnership.
(Original title: The economy of sub-Saharan Africa is gradually stabilizing and improving)
