The German economy has gradually entered the growth range

According to the latest data released by the German Federal Bureau of Statistics recently, German commodity exports increased by 1.3% month on month in June, exceeding the previous forecast of 0.4%, which is the 14th consecutive month on month increase in German commodity exports. According to the quarterly economic data previously released by the Federal Bureau of statistics, the German economy grew by 9.2% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation in Germany has been slowing down since May, and the control measures have gradually eased, and the economy has gradually entered the growth area, Thomas Bojan, a German Federal Foreign Trade and investment agency expert, told our correspondent. Boyan quoted the data of the Federal Bureau of statistics as saying that in June this year, German industrial orders increased by 4.1% month on month, exceeding the previous forecast of 1.9%“ The growth from the second quarter will become stronger in the second half of the year. "

Germany's electronic and electrical industry depends on exports, which is particularly affected by the good economic situation. According to the announcement of the German electronic and electrical industry association, from January to May this year, the export volume of the whole industry increased by 11.8% year-on-year, reaching 89.4 billion euros. Among them, China is the largest export market. In the first five months of this year, exports to China increased by 11.2% year-on-year, reaching 10.1 billion euros. So far, the growth of the industry this year has made up for the losses caused by the epidemic last year.

Boyan said that Germany's foreign trade volume with EU and non EU countries showed a growth trend. The world economy is picking up, especially in some economies such as China. Affected by this, the German economy will maintain optimistic growth prospects in the coming months.

The European Commission is also optimistic about the economic outlook of Germany. It is expected that the country's economy will grow by 3.6% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022, returning to the pre epidemic level. The European Commission also warned that this estimate was based on the premise that the epidemic situation was stable and control measures were further relaxed in the second half of the year. Jean tiloni, member of the European Commission in charge of economic affairs, said: "the spread of delta mutant virus reminds people that they have not come out of the shadow of the epidemic."

At the same time, out of concern about the epidemic situation, some economic research institutions recently lowered Germany's economic growth expectations. The European Economic Research Center recently adjusted Germany's economic climate index in August to 40.4, down from 63.3 last month. The business climate index predicted by the German Institute of economics is also worse than expected.

Feist, director of iver Economic Research Institute, believes that repeated concerns about the epidemic and supply chain bottlenecks are the main reasons for dragging down German economic expectations. Boyan analyzed that the epidemic disrupted or interrupted the global supply chain, and the shortage of intermediate products caused difficulties in German industries, construction and automobile. It is reported that due to the lack of chip supply, the Leipzig factory of BMW Group in Germany had to suspend some production lines at the end of last month, and only one of the five working days a week started work.

(source: People's daily original title: German economy gradually enters the growth range)