Source: China Trade News
In the face of the recent volatile international situation, the international financial market and the international currency structure have also fluctuated and fluctuated. On May 28, the 184th issue of the Great Financial Thought Salon, jointly hosted by the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China and the Department of Monetary and Finance of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, was held online. The guests at the meeting held discussions on the theme of "Evolution of the International Monetary Pattern under the Current Situation and the Outlook of the Renminbi".
Lu Dong, a researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China and an associate professor at the School of Finance and Finance, said that recent data shows that the renminbi's status in global payments and reserve currencies has improved, and the internationalization index is also advancing steadily. Lu Dong said that since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, some Russian banks have been excluded from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT) payment system. That may hardly affect the dollar's global payments status, but freezing Russia's foreign exchange reserves should affect the dollar's already declining status as a reserve currency to a greater extent. In the process, the share of reserve currencies in the renminbi and other emerging market countries has increased from zero to around 10%. The anchoring status of the RMB has been improved, and the increase in the weight of the SDR will help enhance the status of the RMB as a reserve currency.
Tu Yonghong, Dean of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Deputy Director of the International Monetary Institute, put forward three suggestions on RMB internationalization and RMB exchange rate. The first is to give full play to my country's advantages of abundant capital, super large market, and complete industrial categories, seize the opportunity of short-chain, regional and digital adjustment of the global industrial chain, win competitive advantages, consolidate the status of the largest trade country, and further consolidate the internationalization of RMB. the economic basis of . The second is to follow the trend of international economic regionalization and payment fragmentation, take investment and trade facilitation as a starting point, strengthen comprehensive strategic cooperative relations with regional friendly countries, play the role of the foreign exchange market as a link, and develop more fully functional RMB offshore The foreign exchange market promotes the formation of a pattern of RMB investment and loan linkage, as well as a closed-loop and cross-border use cycle in which the current account and capital account support each other, and expands new RMB usage scenarios in new trade formats, new models, and new channels. The construction of the “Belt and Road” has opened up a broad space for the internationalization of the RMB, which requires intensive cultivation and a solid expansion of the channels for the use of the RMB. The third is to pay attention to short-term capital flows and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, strengthen the expected guidance mechanism for the RMB exchange rate, and boost market confidence.
Xiao Lisheng, Director of the Global Macro Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Political Science, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discussed the basis of RMB internationalization and the preparations that should be made. He believes that the RMB exchange rate issue is more of a macro issue than an international financial issue. Through research, it is found that, aside from expectations, the RMB exchange rate is more related to the fundamental attractiveness of the economy to overseas capital, while capital flow cannot be the core determinant of the RMB exchange rate. The decision mechanism of my country's foreign exchange still depends on the real economy. . Against this background, discussing RMB internationalization requires more careful analysis. Xiao Lisheng said that the biggest fundamentals on which my country's exchange rate depends is the manufacturing industry. At present, my country's total manufacturing industry accounts for more than 25% of the world's total. If it wants to rise further, the expansion margin of the manufacturing industry is an important issue that needs to be considered. There is a lot of room for improvement in the internationalization of the RMB in the future, but there will also be bottlenecks. "In this process, we need to provide investment and financing services for the entire industry chain of RMB internationalization according to our own manufacturing industry chain, and make some defensive preparations at the same time." Xiao Lisheng said.
E Zhihuan, Chief Economist of BOC Hong Kong, proposed two paths that should be paid attention to in the future of RMB internationalization. First, seize the opportunity of RCEP's entry into force and accelerate the use of RMB in RCEP regional trade and investment. In the post-epidemic era, the adjustment of the global economic structure is accelerating, and the de-globalization is still going on. We should seize the opportunity when RCEP comes into effect and promote the process of RMB internationalization around the actual needs of trade and investment. The second is to continue to give full play to the pilot and promotion role of the offshore market in the process of RMB internationalization. The internationalization of the RMB started from the offshore market in the early days, and with the opening of the domestic financial market, the internationalization of the RMB entered a home-driven period. Recently, the offshore RMB market has faced some adjustments. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the international financial market. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the offshore market has accelerated, and the offshore RMB capital pool has shrunk. The offshore RMB interest rate is higher than the onshore interest rate. Two-way interaction of onshore exchange rates. She suggested that attention should be paid to the stability of the liquidity of the offshore market, maintaining the scale of the offshore market, and doing more pilots to explore the mode of RMB exchange rate fluctuations without foreign exchange controls in the offshore market, so as to accumulate experience for the opening of the domestic financial market.
The status of reserve currency is improved, and the internationalization of RMB is steadily advancin
Date:2022-06-01 Hits:118
