With the release of key economic data such as the unemployment rate and inflation rate, the market has become increasingly heated and divided over whether and when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.The previously released employment report once again showed that the U.S. job market is still growing strongly, suggesting that the Federal Reserve needs to be cautious in taking next steps.This week, the market will pay close attention to the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).Right now, market speculation is heating up that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year.Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that if inflation remains at current high levels for a long time, it is possible that the Fed will not cut interest rates.Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said U.S. economic growth is "not slowing down at all" and no interest rate cuts are expected during the year.Vanguard, a top U.S. asset management company, has not set an interest rate cut within the year as its base forecast.Many economists also predict that the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates, but the time may be later than this summer.George Lagarias, chief economist of the international consulting firm Mazars, told the US media on the 8th that the US economic growth is strong and it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to find reasons to cut interest rates as soon as possible."Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if there were fewer rate cuts or if the Fed didn't push for rate cuts until the end of the year."However, Lagarias believes that an interest rate cut during the year is "still possible.""The Fed does have some room to cut interest rates, but they don't want to make a mistake," he said.The Fed is unwilling to cut interest rates when inflation continues to exceed expectations, but wants to see more data moving in the right direction and take its time to wait.More economists continue to maintain the same forecast as the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, which is to cut interest rates three times during the year, each time by 25 basis points.Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson pointed out that there is only a 10%-15% chance that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the timing of the Fed's rate cut will depend on recent data and the Fed's "reflection function," but a rate cut within the year is a high probability event.According to a Fed tracking data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market currently predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June and July is around 50%, which is significantly lower than the level at the beginning of the month.
