The updat pointed out that at the beginning of this year, global economic activity and world trade have consolidated. Export growth in Asia, especially the region's strong performance in the technology field, has provided impetus for trade growth. According to the latest IMF forecast, the global economic growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 3.2%, and the global trade volume will increase by 3.1% and 3.4% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, both of which are 0.1 percentage points higher than the forecast in April.
Gulansha said that emerging Asian economies represented by China are still the main engine of global economic growth. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath announced in Beijing in May this year that the IMF has raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the forecast in April. The update pointed out that the upward risk of inflation has increased globally, especially considering the intensification of trade frictions and increased policy uncertainty, which may cause interest rates to remain high for a longer period of time. Gulansha pointed out that if developed economies make unfavorable progress in curbing inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may need to keep borrowing costs at a higher level for a longer period of time, which will not only threaten global economic growth and increase upward pressure on the US dollar, but also have a negative spillover effect on emerging and developing economies.In addition, Gulansha said that the continued increase in the proportion of US debt to gross domestic product (GDP) undoubtedly poses potential risks to its own and even the global economy.
