Burst! Indonesia announced a ban on all coal exports for one month! 75% of domestic coal imports com

Recently, the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Indonesia stated in a letter that in order to alleviate the current shortage of coal supply and prioritize domestic power demand, Indonesia will ban coal exports from January 1 to January 31, 2022, including those that are being installed and those that have not yet been installed. All loaded coal ships should be supplied to national power plants.

At the same time, the Ministry of Energy and Mines stated that it will review the coal export ban after assessing the inventory levels of the State Power Corporation and independent power producers.

As the world's largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia exported 360 million tons of coal from January to October 2021, a year-on-year increase of 9.34%.
The sharp rise in international coal prices in 2021 has caused Indonesian coal companies to increase exports, especially for transportation to the Chinese market.
On the one hand, the increase in coal transportation demand has led to an increase in sea freight, and on the other hand, it has exacerbated the shortage of domestic coal supply in Indonesia.

On August 13, the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Indonesia suspended the export of 34 coal mining companies including PT Arutmin Indonesia for failing to fulfill the tasks stipulated in the contract to meet the needs of Indonesia's National Power (PLN) coal mines in the first half of 2021.

Indonesia is not only the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, but also a major importer of China's power (19.700, -0.29, -1.45%) coal.
From January to November 2021, China imported 176 million tons of thermal coal from Indonesia, a year-on-year increase of 62 million tons, an increase of 54%, accounting for about 75% of China's total thermal coal imports.
Recently, Indonesia has been affected by the weather and limited coal shipments. Coupled with the increase in China's coal production, thermal coal prices continued to decline in December. Driven by market bearish sentiment, Indonesia's Q3800FOB price was reported to 66 US dollars/ton.
The Indonesian ban on coal exports for a period of one month, the decline in short-term shipping demand will further release the shipping market capacity.
At present, the downstream inventory of the domestic thermal coal market is relatively sufficient, the terminal purchase demand is weak, and the price is weak.
At present, some mines in Indonesia have declared force majeure, and we need to continue to pay attention to the further impact of Indonesia's follow-up policy implementation and continuity on the Chinese market.
The distribution of my country's thermal coal importing countries from January to November 2021: Indonesia 75%, Russia 15%, Philippines 3%, South Africa 3%, Australia 2%, Colombia 1%, Mongolia 1%. my country's coal import dependence is about 10%.