Opportunities and challenges for China's industrial upgrading in the next decade

"The 13th five year plan is coming to an end and the 14th five year plan is about to start. The biggest difference between the 14th five year plan and the 13th five year plan is that the external environment has changed. " In a lecture entitled "opportunities and challenges for China's industrial upgrading in the next ten years", Wang Yong, academic vice president and doctoral director of the Institute of new structural economics of Peking University, analyzed that at present, China's per capita income is about 10000 US dollars, which is on the eve of leaping over the middle-income trap, and is still in the period of transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality development However, different industries have different characteristics, and different industries have different positions in international competition.



Wang Yong said that in terms of catch-up industries, this is an industry that already exists in an economy, but there is a big gap between the technology and the international cutting-edge level. At present, China's automobile, high-end equipment industry and high-end material industry are in this position. At this time, the government can help these industries to obtain more advanced technology and R & D level by supporting investment promotion, overseas M & A, and overseas R & D centers.



"Leading industries refer to industries whose products and technologies have already been in the leading position in the world or are close to the highest level in the world. For example, China's home appliances, high-speed rail, shipbuilding and other industries." Wang Yong believes that leading industries must rely on independent research and development of new products and new technologies in order to continue to maintain the international leading level. The government should support the new technologies and basic scientific research needed for the development of new products of leading industries, and improve market demand through personnel training and government procurement.



"Lane changing and overtaking industry is an emerging industry with intensive technology and capital, high demand for human capital, short R & D cycle and increasing returns to scale. At present, software, mobile phone and other industries in China's information and communication industry are in this position. " Wang Yong analyzed that in the development of such industries, China has a huge domestic market, a large number of scientific and technological talents, complete production and processing capacity, and can quickly turn concepts into products, and there have been successful enterprises such as Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent. The government can provide incubation base for enterprises, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, encourage venture capital, formulate preferential talent and tax policies, and support domestic and foreign innovative talents to start their own businesses.



There are also strategic industries. "This is divided into two categories, namely, the national defense and security industry and the strategic new industry. At present, China's large aircraft, aerospace, supercomputer industry, weapons and military equipment are national defense and security industries; new energy, new materials and chips are new strategic industries. " Wang Yong said that the government can support the development of new products and technologies through direct financial allocation, and support the production of its products by means of government procurement and promotion to other countries, support the basic scientific research of relevant technologies, coordinate, cultivate and attract relevant talents, and provide supporting software and hardware infrastructure.



In Wang Yong's opinion, the new opportunities for China's industrial upgrading in the next decade need to be classified: for strategic industries and lane changing and overtaking industries, China's relevant enterprises will seek more reliable strategic suppliers in the geopolitical sense, and the Chinese government will certainly increase the number of industries that are vulnerable to deliberate suppression by international strategic rivals, especially innovative industries involving key technologies With great support, this is an opportunity for industrial investment; industries producing high-tech and high-performance products with the help of new digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing and big data, as well as platform economy industries that fully meet the needs of middle-class and above consumers for personalized and high-quality services, are expected to continue to be the main source industries of Unicorn enterprises; education and medicine There are obvious weaknesses in social services such as health care and pension. With the promotion of regional policies such as the Yangtze River Delta integration, the construction of Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area and the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, it is expected that there will be long-term favorable investment opportunities.



The challenges of industrial upgrading can not be ignored. "For leading industries, we should do a good job in quality and brand, and avoid being big but not strong; while the geopolitical environment of China's strategic industries is becoming more and more complex, whether we can find a reliable backup plan to deal with the risk of being" stuck in the neck "is a big challenge Wang Yong said that the overtaking industry needs to solve such problems as the cultivation of scientific research and innovation talents and the recruitment of global talents.